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US stocks douse early losses on consumer sentiment

Wall Street reversed its sharp fall on Friday, trimming losses after consumer sentiment in the US partly offset a worse-than-expected an annualized 2.4% US GDP in the second quarter. Question marks to intensify the downside pattern arose, as investors were conflicted with the string of mixed indicators.

However, given the large relevancy on the economic growth picture in the US, the reported downbeat rise continues to limit any efforts to keep benchmark indexes afloat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.43%, yet far from its daily low, the Nasdaq Compsitr declined 0.58% and the S&P 500 fell 0.45%.

New Zealand: RBNZ hikes rate to 3.00% in line with expectations

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to raise the interest rate to 3.00% from its previous 2.75%, matching the expectations of most surveyed economists. While the hike is hawkish, the June 10 statement by the RBNZ made it seem more increases were less likely citing weak economic fundamentals like slow retail and declining housing and net immigration.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

3.00%

Actual

3.00%

Consensus

2.75%

Previous

Forex: USD/CAD jumps to 1.0360 after Canadian GDP

Dollar retreat from 1.0390/95 resistance area, tested on Thursday for the fourth time, has been halted at 1.0310 session low, as the Dollar jumped to 1.0365 after the release of Canadian GDP Data.

The pair is approaching 1.0390/95 resistance (Jul 27/28/29 highs), with next resistance levels above here, at 1.0445 (Jul 23 high) and 1.0505 (Jul 21/22 high). On the downside, support levels lie at 1.0300 (Jul 28/29 lows), and below here, 1.0255 (Jul 27 low) and 1.0180 (Jun 22 low).

Canadian economy advanced at a 0.1% pace in May, following a flat performance in April, below market expectations of a 0.2% growth.

• USD/CAD

USD/CAD (Jul 30 at 16:31 GMT)

1.0273/83 (-0.90%)

H 1.0377 L 1.0264

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.0248	1.0274	1.0300	1.0328	1.0354	1.0380

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bullish	Neutral
Data updated on Jul 30 at 16:15 (15-minute timeframe)

Oil drifts off 11-week high

By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporterJuly 30, 2010: 3:35 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices drifted lower this week, edging off last week's 11-week high above $79 a barrel. But trading remained rangebound as investors balanced strong corporate earnings against ongoing jitters over the economic recovery.

Prices tumbled midweek to below $77 a barrel before regaining some ground on Thursday. Absent any big catalyst, analysts expect that type of action to continue.

The first round of pressure on prices came Tuesday after the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index sank in July to the lowest reading since February."Oil has rallied $8 since the beginning of the month, and I think this drawback is on slightly weaker economic news in the U.S. that has stirred up a whole lot of talk about a double-dip recession," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group.

Oil prices continued to slide Wednesday after an inventory report from the Energy Information Administration showed a surprise build in crude supplies.

The report showed that crude stocks climbed by 7.3 million barrels last week, surprising analysts who were expecting inventories to fall by 2.3 million barrels, according to a consensus estimate collected by energy information provider Platts.

Cordier said worries about dwindling demand for crude will continue as the peak driving season ends and brings around the fall period, when oil consumption is seasonally the lowest. .

Oil rebounded 1.8% Thursday to $78.36 as the dollar dropped to a 11-week low against the euro. Crude, like other commodities, is priced in dollar, and a weaker greenback boosts prices.

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Economic Activity in the U.S. Slows to 2.4 Percent in the Second Quarter

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation measure; the core PCE deflator added 1.1 percent in the second quarter, which is slightly lower than figures the quarter prior which gained 1.2 percent. Indeed, inventories continue to account for massive share of growth, and in fact, inventories may remain low over the medium term as companies continue to maintain an uncertain outlook. Today’s figures do not come to much of a surprise as Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke recently signaled that no moves were imminent to bolster the economic recovery despite a “somewhat weaker outlook,” while Senator Dodd added that “it looks like our economy is in need of additional help.”

Looking ahead, market participants will now shift their focus to the Chicago purchasing managers’ index for the month of July, while the final reading from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected to rise to 67.0 from 66.5 the reading prior.


Market Reaction 

Immediately following the disappointing data the USD/JPY fell from a high 86.44 to a low of 85.95. Indeed, the intraday low marks the lowest level since November 30th 2009. Going forward, we may continue to see the U.S. dollar lose ground against the Japanese Yen as our speculative sentiment index now stands at an extreme level of 5.507, signaling for further declines.


Written by Michael Wright, Currency Analyst
To Receive Future Articles by Email, please contact me at mwright@fxcm.com
Michael Wright is the author of FX Headlines, Fundamentals vs. Technical’s, Weekly Spotlight, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast

Euro, British Pound Lose Ground as Market Sentiment Falters, U.S. 2Q GDP

he Euro pulled back on Friday and slipped to a low of 1.2980 during the overnight trade as investors scaled back their appetite for risk, and the shift in mark sentiment could lead the EUR/USD to retrace the advance from earlier this week as the economic docket is expected to show the world’s largest economy expanding at a slower pace in the second quarter.

Talking Points
•    Japanese Yen: Rallies Across The Board
•    Pound: Halts Six-Day Advance
•    Euro: CPI Estimate Rises To Highest Since 2008
•    U.S. Dollar: 2Q GDP on Tap

Meanwhile, Ireland’s central bank said that the recovery in the Euro-Zone may “moderate somewhat” in the second-half of 2010 as governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system tighten fiscal policy and target their budget deficit, and went onto say that “the risks to the growth outlook over the medium term appears on the downside, given the potential for the consolidation to have a bigger-than-expected impact on growth in both the euro area and the global economy more generally.”

As a result, the European Central Bank is widely expected to hold the benchmark interest rate at the record-low of 1.00% next week, and President Jean-Claude Trichet may continue to hold neutral outlook for future policy as he expects to see an “uneven” recovery paired with subdued price growth. Nevertheless, the economic docket showed household spending in Germany tumbled 0.9% in June amid forecasts for a 0.2% decline, while the unemployment rate for the Euro-Zone held steady at a 12-year high of 10.0% for the fourth  consecutive month. At the same time, the CPI estimate for the region increased to an annualized pace of 1.7% in July from 1.4% in the previous month, which is the highest reading since November 2008, but the ongoing slack within the private sector paired with the weakness in the financial system is likely to weigh on price growth over the coming months as the Governing Council maintains a dovish bias for inflation.